Can Scottie Pull Off A Padraig At Royal Birkdale ?

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After missing a first halfway cut in some four years, the big question this week is can World No. 1 and defending Open Champion Scottie Scheffler get his act together and perform a Padraig Harrington at Royal Birkdale.

It’s been eight years since Harrington captured back-to-back Open Championship triumphs thanks to his stunning four shot success at the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale, and a year after his triumph at Carnoustie.

Scheffler is looking to join Harrington as the game’s second straight Open winner but then the Texas is returning to the game’s oldest major having sat out his recent PGA Tour start for a first occasion in some 82 straight starts on the game’s biggest stage.

For four years, Scottie Scheffler has been immune. He has many superpowers, but his personality is specifically suited to handle these challenges. The spotlight is unimportant to him. He actively disdains it. History doesn’t motivate him the way it does Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm. Scheffler keeps sponsors at arm’s length, careful to take on only what’s absolutely necessary.

“He doesn’t care to be a superstar,” Scheffler’s close friend Jordan Spieth said at last year’s The Open Championship. “He’s not transcending the game like Tiger did … He doesn’t want to go do the stuff that a lot of us go do, corporately, anything like that.”

The sporting world has an odd obsession with building up athletes until they reach the top. At which point, we promptly look for reasons to drag them back down. When the underdog is no longer, they lose some luster. Scheffler has largely managed to stay above that fray, too. His utter domination has proven compelling enough for us all to watch in amazement, wondering how long it might last.

There’s been little to scrutinize. Until recently.

Scheffler turns up to this year’s Open with a different buzz—one of uncertainty.

A week ago, Scheffler missed his first cut in nearly four years. He has his fewest wins in a season since 2021, when he had never won before. He’s bagged one of the first three majors in each of the last three years. Will he go without a major title this year?

Those seeds of doubt are unusual for the world No. 1, and in our endless desire to dissect his complexities, it’s led many to ask, What’s wrong with Scheffler?

It’s a question that lacks nuance, presupposing there’s a glaring issue to fix or that Scheffler is broken in some way. Scheffler rejects that notion. We should, too. Here’s the better, simpler question.

What’s different?

For starters, his form has dipped ever so slightly. But context is important.

Last year, per Data Golf, Scheffler’s “true” Strokes Gained (adjusted for field strength) was +3.28. That’s an astronomical figure. It’s the seventh-best statistical season of any player since 1983. Tiger Woods owns the top six.

This year, Scheffler’s true Strokes Gained is +2.84, a notable drop. Still, that’s the 12th-best season on TOUR since 1983. Only eight Woods seasons, one Greg Norman season and two of Scheffler’s own were better.

Put another way, Scheffler’s current season is better than any from Rory McIlroy, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson or Jordan Spieth.

The valid retort to the raw stats is that the most important of them all – wins – are lacking. Scheffler is displeased with that fact, too.

“For me to be winning a lot of tournaments, you’ve got to just be really, really sharp. I feel like maybe I’ve just been a touch dull,” Scheffler said.

  • Thank you PGA Tour


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